Taos Real Estate Market Report
January – June 2024 (6 months)
Market activity and sales are down compared to last year.
The slowdown that began in 2023 has continued into 2024. After explosive growth from mid-2020 through 2022—which was fueled by ultra-low interest rates and the Covid pandemic shift to work from anywhere—the market has been steadily decelerating. It had got so hot that some pullback was inevitable. Several factors have conspired to dampen buyer enthusiasm for real estate: higher interest rates and house prices that are 40% or more higher than than they were four years ago; worries about geopolitics and wars; burgeoning government and consumer debt; and ugly politics as we head to elections in November. Buyers are fewer, and not as eager to buy, as they were during the boom.
On a positive note, it now seems likely that the Federal Reserve will make a cut to short-term interest rates fairly soon, with another cut or two before the end of the year. Although the Fed does not directly control mortgage rates–those are a function of the market for 10-year Treasury notes–there is some correlation. Recently, mortgage rates have dropped below 7%; if they get a little lower, some buyers who have been on the sidelines may come back into the market.
At this point in time, it looks as if 2024 sales will continue to trend below 2023’s pace. However, the inventory shortage of homes and condos that has plagued the market will remain, so there will still be more demand than supply, and prices should remain buoyant. We believe that the long-term trend for Taos remains upward. This community will continue to draw people for whom the climate, natural beauty, lifestyle and culture here are attractive.
Click each title below to view the discussion and data for that property type.
Home sales are well below last year’s pace.
For the first half of the year (January – June), unit sales were 100 this year vs. 133 last year, a decrease of 33 sales (-24.8%). Dollar sales were down 17.7%, from $70.8 million in 2023 to $58.3 million in 2024. Market behavior has become more normal: if a buyer doesn’t really like a home’s style and/or location, and if the price seems too high, he/she won’t buy it. During the boom, buyers were so determined to get a house here that almost everything was selling, usually at full price or higher. There were many cases of homes receiving numerous showings immediately upon going on the market; multiple offers, often with escalation addends; and sales at full asking price or higher. It is still mostly a seller’s market, but it’s not as one-sided as it was.
Median and Average Prices
The median price (midpoint in the range of sales prices from low to high) for the first six months was $550,600 this year vs. $475,000 last year, a gain of 17.7%. The average (mean) was $583,000 vs. $532,700, an increase of $50,300 (9.4%). Although prices aren’t rising as rapidly as they were during 2020-2022, the lack of inventory of homes listed for sale has kept pushing prices up. Here is how median and average prices have changed since 2016:
| Price | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| Median | $283,500 | $300,000 | $310,500 | $322,500 | $343,500 | $425,000 | $469,000 | $475,000 | $550,600 |
| Average | $306,100 | $326,800 | $369,500 | $373,100 | $398,700 | $513,800 | $558,900 | $545,000 | $583,000 |
Since 2020, when the market surge started, median price has jumped 60%; the average has gained 46%. In addition to the overall price level rising, there has been an increase in sales of higher-priced homes. Buyers coming to Taos who had sold a home in more expensive markets (e.g., California), or who had huge gains in the stock market, could afford pricier homes here. Just looking at the $1 million+ segment, the number of sales increased from 4 in 2019 to 34 in 2022 before coming down to 21 in 2023.
Price Discounting
For the first six months this year, actual sales price averaged 6.0% below the last asking price when the home went under contract; the discount from original asking price was 10.6%. These average discounts are much higher than what occurred during the market surge. In 2021 the discount from original price was only 4.5%; in 2022 it was 3.8%. Back then, multiple offers were common, and homes usually sold at full asking price–or higher. In 2023 and into this year, some sellers listed homes as if the market were as hot as it was during 2020-2022. In today’s market, we are seeing many more reductions in asking price.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 18.4% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 8.4% | 10.6% |
Days On Market
For the first half of 2024 , the average days on market was 127, a very slight increase from 125 in 2023 for the same time period. Due to the steadily declining inventory of homes available for purchase, average DOM dropped dramatically from 2013 through 2022. It seems to be starting to creep upwards this year. The Taos average has always been much higher than in many parts of the country, where homes typically sell in 30-45 days.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 244 | 235 | 235 | 226 | 192 | 147 | 151 | 156 | 141 | 112 | 117 | 127 |
INVENTORY
| Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Sep 2008 | |
| Up to $200k | 5 | 9 | 190 |
| $200k – $300k | 12 | 12 | 109 |
| $300k – $400k | 26 | 24 | 69 |
| $400k – $500k | 24 | 35 | 39 |
| $500k – $650k | 28 | 34 | 35 |
| $650k – $800k | 29 | 28 | 27 |
| $800k – $1mil | 28 | 10 | 36 |
| Over $1mil | 45 | 35 | 13 |
| TOTAL | 197 | 187 | 518 |
UNIT SALES
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD | |
| $0 – $200k | 62 | 44 | 26 | 16 | 7 |
| $200k – $300k | 70 | 49 | 47 | 21 | 4 |
| $300k – $400k | 83 | 64 | 72 | 45 | 16 |
| $400k – $500k | 45 | 55 | 62 | 49 | 15 |
| $500k – $650k | 42 | 53 | 66 | 37 | 27 |
| $650k – $800k | 15 | 34 | 43 | 26 | 11 |
| $800k – $1mil | 15 | 22 | 22 | 14 | 15 |
| Over $1mil | 6 | 29 | 33 | 15 | 5 |
| TOTAL | 338 | 350 | 371 | 223 | 100 |
Inventory
At the time this report was prepared, there were 197 homes listed for sale, up 36 (22%) from three months ago, and up 10 (5%) from a year ago. Current inventory of 197 is only 38% as many homes as were available for purchase in September 2008, when there were 518 homes listed for sale! Taos inventory consists of a wide variety of size, price, style, location, and condition — everything from mobile homes to luxury homes, and spread out over a large geographic area. With just under 200 listings on the market, it is difficult to find more than a few homes to show a buyer that might meet most of his/her criteria.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 334 | 333 | 324 | 316 | 285 | 264 | 274 | 257 | 225 | 217 | 168 | 173 |
There are no indications that inventory will increase substantially any time in the near future. Although there is some “spec” building going on, it’s nowhere near enough to satisfy the demand. Additionally, many current home owners are reluctant to list because they don’t want to give up ultra-low interest rates on their home loans. The inventory will remain inadequate relative to demand. Unlike some markets in the U.S. where prices are actually falling (e.g., Austin, Texas) in Taos prices should continue rising, albeit at a slower rate than during the boom years
Home Purchase Financing
| 2011 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD | ||||||
| Cash | 65 | 43% | 103 | 31% | 139 | 40% | 132 | 36% | 127 | 48% | 38 (38%) |
| Conventional loan | 66 | 44% | 200 | 59% | 180 | 52% | 208 | 56% | 112 | 42% | 58 (58%) |
| FHA loan | 8 | 5% | 11 | 3% | 14 | 4% | 7 | 2% | 8 | 3% | 0 ( 0%) |
| VA loan | 1 | 1% | 13 | 4% | 11 | 3% | 13 | 4% | 6 | 2% | 3 ( 3%) |
| Seller financing | 8 | 5% | 4 | 1% | 2 | 1% | 8 | 2% | 9 | 3% | 0 ( 0%) |
| Other | 2 | 1% | 6 | 2% | 3 | 1% | 1 | 0% | 2 | 1% | 1 ( 1%) |
| Total | 150 | 100% | 337 | 100% | 349 | 100% | 369 | 100% | 264 | 100% | 100 (100%) |
Interest Rates
As soon as the Federal Reserve started its anti-inflation program of raising short-term interest rates in 2022, the rates on home loans increased dramatically. The average 30-year fixed rate loan rose steadily from around 3% in late 2021 to a peak of 7.76% in November 2023. Rates then trended down to 6.6% in January 2024. Then, they climbed back up to 7.2% in May. Recent mostly favorable data about inflation suggest that the Federal Reserve may decide to start lowering short-term rates in September, maybe even sooner. Mortgage rates should follow. They are never going to get back to the low levels of 2019-2021, but if they were to stabilize around 6%, that should bring some buyers back into the market who have been on the sidelines; and it might also entice some homeowners who have been reluctant to give up their very low loan rate to list and sell their home.
| Conventional 30-year fixed | 6.78% |
| Conventional 15-year fixed | 6.07% |
Note: Interest rates are impacted by occupancy, credit score, and down payment.
Foreclosure Sales
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| 55 | 50 | 49 | 34 | 34 | 29 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 28% | 21% | 22% | 13% | 14% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
Through the first six months of 2024, there have been 2 foreclosure sales. In the full year 2023 there were 4; in 2022 there were none. The number of foreclosures diminished steadily from a peak of 55 in 2012 during the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. Currently, there are five bank-owned house listed for sale; two have pending sales.
Please Note: These data do not include any condominiums developed or offered for sale by Taos Ski Valley Resort; those condos are not listed in the Taos MLS.
Condo sales are about the same as last year.
In the first half this year, unit sales are up by 1 from 2023 with 24 sold this year vs. 23 last year. Dollar sales are down 0.2%, from $11,028,100 to $11,007,200. The inventory of condos listed for sale is extremely low, which has been a limiting factor on the number of sales. As is the case with homes, there are no signs that inventory will increase significantly any time soon.
Median price for the first six months was $385,800 this year vs. $412,000 last year, a decrease of $26,200 (-6.4%). Average price was $458,600 vs. $479,500, a drop of $20,900 (-4.4%). Note that averages in Taos can be skewed because of the small number of sales, and the wide variety of property. We do not feel that condo prices are actually falling.
Price Discounting
For the first half this year, final sales price averaged 2.5% less than the last asking price when the condo went under contract, and 3.7% below original listed price. These discounts are much less than those for single-family homes, reflecting an even tighter inventory for condos than for homes.
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 12.7% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 6.6% | 3.7% |
Days On Market – For the year so far, DOM averaged 108 in 2024 vs. 159 in 2023, a decrease of 51 days (-32%).
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 559 | 237 | 324 | 259 | 195 | 125 | 178 | 111 | 152 | 122 | 109 | 108 |
Inventory
The number of condos listed for sale at the time of this report was 34, up from 26 at the beginning of the year, and also up from 28 at this time a year ago. Of the 34 condos currently listed for sale, 7 are at Taos Ski Valley, with only 26 in and near central Taos. Those 26 condos range in price from $235,000 for a 1-bedroom/1-bath to $899,000 for a 4BR/3BA.
In 2006, when condo development was at its peak, there were often approximately 200 condos on the market at any given time, with the majority in or near central Taos. There were 149 condos sold that year.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| 107 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 58 | 59 | 56 | 49 | 48 | 39 | 23 | 29 |
INVENTORY
| Current | Year Ago | Sept 2008 | |
| Up to $150k | 0 | 0 | 40 |
| $150k – $250k | 4 | 3 | 50 |
| $250k – $350k | 6 | 7 | 51 |
| $350k – $500k | 11 | 10 | 56 |
| Over $500k | 13 | 8 | 29 |
| TOTAL | 34 | 28 | 226 |
UNIT SALES
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD | |
| Up to $150k | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| $150k – $250k | 21 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 2 |
| $250k – $350k | 18 | 30 | 33 | 14 | 7 |
| $350k – $500k | 22 | 22 | 31 | 15 | 7 |
| Over $500k | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 8 |
| TOTAL | 74 | 82 | 92 | 58 | 24 |
| How Financed | 2016 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||||
| Cash | 34 | 51% | 43 | 58% | 36 | 44% | 45 | 49% | 38 | 66% | 13 | 54% |
| Conventional loan | 32 | 48% | 30 | 41% | 45 | 55% | 47 | 51% | 20 | 34% | 10 | 42% |
| Seller financing | 1 | 1% | 1 | 1% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Other | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 1% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 4% |
| Total | 67 | 100% | 74 | 100% | 82 | 100% | 92 | 100% | 58 | 100% | 24 | 100% |
Foreclosure Sales
There have been were no foreclosure sales through the first six months in 2024. There were none in 2023, 2022 and 2021.
Multi-family sales are increasing…
…but from a very low level. Through the first six months of the year, there have been 8 sales vs. none in the first half of last year. For full year 2023, there were just 3 sales. In 2022, there were only 6; in 2021 there were 5. In peak year 2005, when the overall real estate market was strong before the Great Financial Crisis, there were only 8 sales. Multi-family has always been a very small segment of the Taos real estate market.
It is surprising that there have already been 8 sales, given the current environment of much higher interest rates. Higher interest rates mean that investors should be demanding higher capitalization rates, which reduce the value of the income stream of a property. Although rents have been trending higher for years—due to an acute lack of inventory of long-term rental properties— rent increases appear to be moderating.
Currently, there are 9 multi-family properties listed for sale; none has a sale pending. It remains to be seen if the early momentum continues.
Land sales are running below last year.
Through the first six months, the number of sales is down by 15 tracts, at 96 tracts sold this year vs. 111 last year (-13.5%). Dollar sales are down—but only 4.4%—at $12.0 million vs. $12.6 million.
The primary constraints on land sales are very high building costs and the long lead time to start and complete construction of a home. Good builders are quoting $400 per square foot (or more) for the hard dollars of construction; this doesn’t include the land purchase, possible well drilling, septic system installation, landscaping. It generally costs more to build a new home than to buy an existing home. However, for some people this is not a deterrent: the good builders are booked up for at least two years!
Land sales were very strong in 2021 after languishing for years following the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. Unit sales in 2021 were up 69% over 2020–although the number of sales was still 27% fewer than peak year 2005. In 2021, during the Covid pandemic influx, some buyers who were frustrated in their search for an existing home to buy (due to the low inventory and intense competition with other buyers) decided to buy land and build.
Then In 2022, the sales pace slowed as buyers realized how long it would take and what it would cost to get a home built. Total closed sales for 2022 were up just 6 units over 2021 (258 vs. 252). In 2023, land sales decreased, along with all the other segments of the real estate market. In the full year 2023, 207 tracts sold compared to 258 in 2022, a decrease of 51 units (-19.8%). Dollar sales were down 21.3%, from $31.6 million to $24.9 million. If 2024 sales continue at the same pace, the year will end with 192 closed sales.
Back in peak year 2005, in the boom leading up to the GFC, there were 339 land sales, with a total dollar value of $46 million. Whereas sales of single-family homes had got back to the peak level of 2005 by 2021-2022, land sales are still way below peak level of 2005.
Median price for the year through June 2024 was $75,000, exactly the same as last year for the same time period. You can see that the median is fairly stable. Average (mean) price for the year through June was up $11,900 (10.5%), from $113,500 to $125,400. Whereas in the market for homes and condos there is much more demand than supply, in the land market the reverse is true. Land buyers have a lot of listings to choose from. The Land market is more of a buyer’s market.
| Price | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| Median | $52,300 | $64,500 | $62,300 | $67,200 | $70,000 | $75,000 | $75,600 | $72,000 | $75,000 |
| Average | $73,100 | $89,800 | $91,900 | $87,500 | $134,600 | $109,000 | $122,500 | $119,400 | $125,400 |
Current inventory of 365 tracts listed for sale is up 12 from the start of the year, and down 15 from a year ago. Note the huge decrease in the number of lots listed up to $50,000.
INVENTORY
| Current Month | Same Month last year | |
| Up to $50k | 35 | 70 |
| $50k – $100k | 106 | 119 |
| $100k – $150k | 53 | 48 |
| $150k – $200k | 50 | 49 |
| $200k – $250k | 26 | 23 |
| $250k – $300k | 15 | 17 |
| Over $300k | 80 | 54 |
| TOTAL | 365 | 380 |
UNIT SALES
| 2017 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 46 | 53 | 86 | 71 | 53 | 25 |
| 34 | 57 | 84 | 97 | 86 | 33 |
| 16 | 17 | 26 | 31 | 24 | 10 |
| 15 | 16 | 23 | 18 | 14 | 14 |
| 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 13 | 8 |
| 118 | 147 | 252 | 258 | 210 | 96 |
Price Discounting
For the first half of 2024, actual sales price averaged 5.7% less than the last listing price; the discount from original listing price was 8.3%. For the full year 2023, the discounts were 8.8% and 12.9%, respectively.
Days On Market
The average days on the market for the first half of 2024 was 599 vs. 356 for the same time frame in 2023. This year’s DOM was skewed by four sales in the Servilleta Subdivision way out in Tres Piedras: those four sales had an average DOM of 7,610 days (over 20 years) each! As the chart below illustrates, DOM for land has been up and down over the years.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 465 | 390 | 605 | 464 | 472 | 388 | 332 | 471 | 351 | 437 | 421 | 599 |
How Land Purchases Were Financed
| 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 YTD | ||
| # of sales | % of total | # of sales | % of total | # of sales | % of total | |
| Cash | 188 | 75% | 168 | 80% | 72 | 75% |
| Conventional loan | 35 | 14% | 24 | 12% | 14 | 15% |
| Seller financing | 28 | 11% | 18 | 8% | 7 | 7% |
| Other | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 3% |
| Total | 252 | 100% | 210 | 100% | 96 | 100% |
The commercial market is up this year, but not by much.
For January – June 2024, there have been four commercial sales compared to two during the same time period in 2023. After a boomlet in 2022, the commercial market has cooled. 2023 was a very weak year, with just 6 sales compared to 18 in 2022. Total 2023 dollar sales were down 82.3%, from $14.5 million to $2.6 million. In 2022, six of the 18 sales were $1 million or more.
Higher interest rates no doubt are affecting the feasibility of commercial real estate. Currently, there are 32 active commercial listings, with no pending sales. There have been 10 price reductions for the active listings.
With the growing number of people moving to Taos (for either full-time or extended-stay living), the demand for commercial services — and therefore for commercial real estate — should increase over time. However, given higher interest rates and the possibility that there might yet be a recession some time in the near future, demand for commercial real estate will probably remain muted. As the chart below indicates, since 2011 there have only been a few years with more than ten commercial sales.
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 4 |