Taos Real Estate Market Report
January – September 2024 (9 months)
The market continues to run below last year’s pace.
Through the first nine months of 2024, the number of sales of Single-family Homes, Condos and Land are all down compared to 2023 for the same time frame. The market deceleration that began in 2023 following the 2020-2022 super-hot market has continued. House prices that are 40% or more higher than than they were four years ago, interest rates 3-4% more than what people had got used to, preoccupation with the November elections, and concerns about the economy, increasing government debt and the tense geopolitical situation, have all combined to dampen interest in real estate. Buyers are fewer, and not as eager to buy, as they were during the boom.
Although the Federal Reserve did reduce short-term interest rates in September, recent strong employment data have suggested that the Fed may cut less in the future than many had predicted. After dropping to just over 6%, mortgage rates have been creeping back up; they will probably not drop below 6% unless the country falls into a recession. Buyers and sellers will probably adjust to this new normal, and they may start wading back into the market; but it is hard to predict when the market will resume an upward trend.
The long-term trend for Taos remains positive. This community will continue to draw people for whom the climate, natural beauty, lifestyle and culture here are attractive.
Click each title below to view the discussion and data for that property type.
Unit sales are 15% fewer, and dollar sales are down 9%, compared to last year.
For the first nine months of the year, unit sales were 176 this year vs. 208 last year, a decrease of 32 sales (-15.4%). Dollar sales were also down, but only 8.6%, from $109.9 million to $100.4 million. Even though the number of buyers has diminished over the past two years, the supply of homes for sale remains inadequate for the demand. This is keeping prices moving up, albeit not as rapidly as during the 2020-2022 bull market. This year, the number of showings has decreased dramatically, and market behavior has become more “normal”: if a buyer doesn’t really like a home’s style and/or location, or if the price seems too high, he/she won’t buy it. During the boom, buyers were so determined to get a house here that almost everything was selling, usually at full price or higher. There were many cases of homes receiving numerous showings immediately upon going on the market; multiple offers, often with escalation addends; and sales at full asking price or higher. This year, many listings have had one or more price reductions before they have sold.
Median and Average Prices
The median price (midpoint in the range of sales prices from low to high) for the year to date was $532,500 this year vs. $472,600 last year, a gain of 12.7%. The average (mean) was $570,500 vs. $528,400, an increase of $42,100 (8.0%). Here is how median and average prices have changed since 2016:
| Price | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| Median | $283,500 | $300,000 | $310,500 | $322,500 | $343,500 | $425,000 | $469,000 | $475,000 | $532,500 |
| Average | $306,100 | $326,800 | $369,500 | $373,100 | $398,700 | $513,800 | $558,900 | $545,000 | $570,500 |
Since 2020, when the market surge started, median price has increased 55%; the average has gained 43%. In addition to the overall price level rising, there has been an increase in sales of higher-priced homes. Buyers coming to Taos who sold a home in more expensive markets (e.g., California), or who had huge gains in the stock market, could afford pricier homes here. Just looking at the $1 million+ segment, the number of sales increased from 4 in 2019 to 34 in 2022 before coming down to 21 in 2023.
Price Discounting
For the first nine months this year, actual sales price averaged 5.4% below the last asking price when the home went under contract; the discount from original asking price was 10.0%. These average discounts are much higher than what occurred during the market surge. In 2021 the discount from original price was only 4.5%; in 2022 it was 3.8%. Back then, multiple offers were common, and homes usually sold at full asking price–or higher. In 2023 and into this year, buyers have been able to negotiate more discounts, especially on some listings that were priced as if the market is as hot as it was during 2020-2022
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 18.4% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 8.4% | 10.0% |
Days On Market
Through September , the average days on market was 126, a slight increase from 120 in 2023 for the same time period. Due to the steadily declining inventory of homes available for purchase, average DOM dropped dramatically from 2013 through 2022. It seems to be starting to creep upwards this year. The Taos average has always been much higher than in many parts of the country, where homes typically sell in 30-45 days.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 244 | 235 | 235 | 226 | 192 | 147 | 151 | 156 | 141 | 112 | 117 | 126 |
INVENTORY
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Sep 2008 | |
| Up to $200k | 6 | 6 | 190 |
| $200k – $300k | 10 | 10 | 109 |
| $300k – $400k | 30 | 19 | 69 |
| $400k – $500k | 28 | 22 | 39 |
| $500k – $650k | 29 | 27 | 35 |
| $650k – $800k | 34 | 25 | 27 |
| $800k – $1mil | 22 | 18 | 36 |
| Over $1mil | 49 | 33 | 13 |
| TOTAL | 208 | 160 | 518 |
UNIT SALES
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD | |
| $0 – $200k | 62 | 44 | 26 | 16 | 10 |
| $200k – $300k | 70 | 49 | 47 | 21 | 13 |
| $300k – $400k | 83 | 64 | 72 | 45 | 26 |
| $400k – $500k | 45 | 55 | 62 | 49 | 29 |
| $500k – $650k | 42 | 53 | 66 | 37 | 41 |
| $650k – $800k | 15 | 34 | 43 | 26 | 24 |
| $800k – $1mil | 15 | 22 | 22 | 14 | 25 |
| Over $1mil | 6 | 29 | 33 | 15 | 8 |
| TOTAL | 338 | 350 | 371 | 223 | 176 |
Inventory
At the time this report was prepared, there were 208 homes listed for sale, up 11 (6%) from three months ago, but up 48 (30%) from a year ago, when inventory was at a low point. Current inventory of 208 is only 40% as many homes as were available for purchase in September 2008, when there were 518 homes listed for sale! Taos inventory consists of a wide variety of size, price, style, location, and condition — everything from mobile homes to luxury homes, and spread out over a large geographic area. With such a low supply of homes listed for sale, it is difficult to find more than a few homes to show a buyer that might meet most of his/her criteria.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 334 | 333 | 324 | 316 | 285 | 264 | 274 | 257 | 225 | 217 | 168 | 175 |
There are no indications that inventory will increase substantially any time in the near future. Although there is some “spec” building going on, it’s nowhere near enough to satisfy the demand. Additionally, many current home owners are reluctant to list because they don’t want to give up ultra-low interest rates on their home loans. The inventory will remain inadequate relative to demand. Unlike some markets in the U.S. where prices are actually falling (e.g., Austin, Texas) in Taos prices should continue rising, albeit at a slower rate than during the boom years
Home Purchase Financing
| 2011 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD | ||||||
| Cash | 65 | 43% | 103 | 31% | 139 | 40% | 132 | 36% | 127 | 48% | 68 (39%) |
| Conventional loan | 66 | 44% | 200 | 59% | 180 | 52% | 208 | 56% | 112 | 42% | 93 (53%) |
| FHA loan | 8 | 5% | 11 | 3% | 14 | 4% | 7 | 2% | 8 | 3% | 3 ( 2%) |
| VA loan | 1 | 1% | 13 | 4% | 11 | 3% | 13 | 4% | 6 | 2% | 10 ( 5%) |
| Seller financing | 8 | 5% | 4 | 1% | 2 | 1% | 8 | 2% | 9 | 3% | 1 ( 1%) |
| Other | 2 | 1% | 6 | 2% | 3 | 1% | 1 | 0% | 2 | 1% | 1 ( 1%) |
| Total | 150 | 100% | 337 | 100% | 349 | 100% | 369 | 100% | 264 | 100% | 176 (100%) |
Interest Rates
As soon as the Federal Reserve announced a cut in its benchmark short-term interest rate, mortgage rates declined, too. The average 30-year fixed rate dropped to almost 6%. However, since then mortgage rates have been climbing back up, as stronger than expected economic data have tempered market expectations of additional Fed cuts.
By now, buyers and sellers probably realize that rates are never going to get back to the low levels of 2019-2021; but if they stabilize around 6%, that should bring some buyers back into the market who have been on the sidelines; and it might also entice some homeowners who have been reluctant to give up their very low loan rate to list and sell their home.
| Conventional 30-year fixed | 6.44% |
| Conventional 15-year fixed | 5.63% |
Note: Interest rates are impacted by occupancy, credit score, and down payment.
Foreclosure Sales
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| 55 | 50 | 49 | 34 | 34 | 29 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 28% | 21% | 22% | 13% | 14% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
Through the first nine months of 2024, there have been 4 foreclosure sales. In the full year 2023 there were 4; in 2022 there were none. The number of foreclosures diminished steadily from a peak of 55 in 2012 during the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. Currently, there are just two bank-owned house listed for sale; neither has a pending sale.
Please Note: These data do not include any condominiums developed or offered for sale by Taos Ski Valley Resort; those condos are not listed in the Taos MLS.
Condo sales are almost exactly the same as last year–not many.
In the first nine months this year, unit sales are down by 1 from 2023 with 38 sold this year vs. 39 last year (-2.6%). Dollar sales are down 8.6%, from $18.1 million to $16.5 million. The inventory of condos listed for sale is extremely low, which has been a limiting factor on the number of sales. As is the case with homes, there are no signs that inventory will increase significantly any time soon.
Median price for the first nine months was $385,800 this year vs. $412,000 last year, a decrease of $26,200 (-6.4%). Average price was $433,900 vs. $464,000, a drop of $30,100 (-6.5%). With a data set of only 38 sales, these averages could be skewed by differences in the size, location, age, etc. of the units that sold from one year to the next.
Price Discounting
Through nine months, final sales price averaged 2.5% less than the last asking price when the condo went under contract, and 4.3% below original listed price. These discounts are much less than those for single-family homes, reflecting an even tighter inventory for condos than for homes.
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 12.7% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% |
Days On Market – For the year so far, DOM averaged 106 in 2024 vs. 115 in 2023, a decrease of 9 days (-8%).
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 559 | 237 | 324 | 259 | 195 | 125 | 178 | 111 | 152 | 122 | 109 | 106 |
Inventory
The number of condos listed for sale at the time of this report was 36, up from 34 three months ago, and up 10 from the beginning of the year. Of the 36 condos currently listed for sale, 8 are at Taos Ski Valley, with only 28 in and near central Taos. Those 28 condos range in price from $220,000 for a 0-bedroom/1-bath studio to $669,900 for a 4BR/3BA over 2,000 square feet.
In 2006, when condo development was at its peak, there were often approximately 200 condos on the market at any given time, with the majority in or near central Taos. There were 149 condos sold that year.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| 107 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 58 | 59 | 56 | 49 | 48 | 39 | 23 | 29 |
INVENTORY
| Current | Year Ago | Sept 2008 | |
| Up to $150k | 0 | 0 | 40 |
| $150k – $250k | 6 | 1 | 50 |
| $250k – $350k | 8 | 8 | 51 |
| $350k – $500k | 12 | 8 | 56 |
| Over $500k | 10 | 7 | 29 |
| TOTAL | 36 | 24 | 226 |
UNIT SALES
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD | |
| Up to $150k | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| $150k – $250k | 21 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 5 |
| $250k – $350k | 18 | 30 | 33 | 14 | 11 |
| $350k – $500k | 22 | 22 | 31 | 15 | 10 |
| Over $500k | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 12 |
| TOTAL | 74 | 82 | 92 | 58 | 38 |
| How Financed | 2016 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||||
| Cash | 34 | 51% | 43 | 58% | 36 | 44% | 45 | 49% | 38 | 66% | 21 | 55% |
| Conventional loan | 32 | 48% | 30 | 41% | 45 | 55% | 47 | 51% | 20 | 34% | 17 | 45% |
| Seller financing | 1 | 1% | 1 | 1% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Other | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 1% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 67 | 100% | 74 | 100% | 82 | 100% | 92 | 100% | 58 | 100% | 38 | 100% |
Foreclosure Sales
There have been were no foreclosure sales through the first nine months in 2024. There were none in 2023, 2022 and 2021.
Multi-family sales are increasing, but from a very low point.
For the year to September 30, there have been 8 sales vs. one in the same time period last year. For full year 2023, there were just 3 sales. In 2022, there were only 6; in 2021 there were 5. In peak year 2005, when the overall real estate market was strong before the Great Financial Crisis, there were only 8 sales. Multi-family has always been a very small segment of the Taos real estate market.
It is surprising that there have already been 8 sales, given the current environment of much higher interest rates. Higher interest rates mean that investors should be demanding higher capitalization rates, which reduce the value of the income stream of a property. Although rents have been trending higher for years—due to an acute lack of inventory of long-term rental properties— rent increases appear to be moderating.
Currently, there are 9 multi-family properties listed for sale; none has a sale pending. It remains to be seen if the momentum continues.
Land sales are running 15% below last year.
Year-to-date, the number of sales is down by 25 tracts, at 143 sold this year vs. 168 last year (-14.9%). Dollar sales are down—but only 5.4%—at $17.4 million vs. $18.4 million.
The primary constraints on land sales are very high building costs and the long lead time to start and complete construction of a home. Good builders are quoting $400 per square foot (or more) for the hard dollars of construction; this doesn’t include the land purchase, possible well drilling, septic system installation, and landscaping. It generally costs more to build a new home than to buy an existing home. However, for some people this is not a deterrent: the good builders are booked up for at least two years!
Land sales were very strong in 2021 after languishing for years following the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. Unit sales in 2021 were up 69% over 2020–although the number of sales was still 27% fewer than peak year 2005. In 2021, during the Covid pandemic influx, some buyers who were frustrated in their search for an existing home to buy (due to the low inventory and intense competition with other buyers) decided to buy land and build.
Then In 2022, the sales pace slowed as buyers realized how long it would take and what it would cost to get a home built. Total closed sales for 2022 were up just 6 units over 2021 (258 vs. 252). In 2023, land sales decreased, along with all the other segments of the real estate market. In the full year 2023, 207 tracts sold compared to 258 in 2022, a decrease of 51 units (-19.8%). Dollar sales were down 21.3%, from $31.6 million to $24.9 million. If 2024 sales continue at the same pace, the year will end with 192 closed sales.
Back in peak year 2005, in the boom leading up to the GFC, there were 339 land sales, with a total dollar value of $46 million. Whereas sales of single-family homes had got back to the peak level of 2005 by 2021-2022, land sales are still way below peak level of 2005.
Median price for 2024 through October 2024 was $75,000, up $5,000 (7.1%) from 2023 for the same time period. You can see that the median is fairly stable. Average (mean) price for the year to date was up $21,300 (21.2%), from $100,500 to $121,800.
| Price | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| Median | $52,300 | $64,500 | $62,300 | $67,200 | $70,000 | $75,000 | $75,600 | $72,000 | $75,000 |
| Average | $73,100 | $89,800 | $91,900 | $87,500 | $134,600 | $109,000 | $122,500 | $119,400 | $121,800 |
Current inventory of 368tracts listed for sale is up 15 from the start of the year, and down 12 from a year ago. Note the huge decrease in the number of lots listed up to $50,000.
INVENTORY
| Current Month | Same Month last year | |
| Up to $50k | 40 | 70 |
| $50k – $100k | 93 | 119 |
| $100k – $150k | 55 | 48 |
| $150k – $200k | 50 | 49 |
| $200k – $250k | 31 | 23 |
| $250k – $300k | 16 | 17 |
| Over $300k | 83 | 54 |
| TOTAL | 368 | 380 |
UNIT SALES
| 2017 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 46 | 53 | 86 | 71 | 53 | 32 |
| 34 | 57 | 84 | 97 | 86 | 56 |
| 16 | 17 | 26 | 31 | 24 | 17 |
| 15 | 16 | 23 | 18 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 13 | 10 |
| 118 | 147 | 252 | 258 | 210 | 143 |
Price Discounting
For the first nine months of 2024, actual sales price averaged 6.7% less than the last listing price; the discount from original listing price was 8.0%. For the full year 2023, the discounts were 8.8% and 12.9%, respectively. Whereas in the market for homes and condos there is much more demand than supply, in the land market the reverse is true. Land buyers have a lot of listings to choose from. The Land market is more of a buyer’s market.
Days On Market
The average days on the market for the year to date in 2024 was 487 vs. 451 for the same time frame in 2023. This year’s average was skewed by four sales in the Servilleta Subdivision way out in Tres Piedras: those four sales had an average DOM of 7,610 days each (over 20 years)! As the chart below illustrates, DOM for land has been up and down over the years.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 465 | 390 | 605 | 464 | 472 | 388 | 332 | 471 | 351 | 437 | 421 | 487 |
How Land Purchases Were Financed
| 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 YTD | ||
| # of sales | % of total | # of sales | % of total | # of sales | % of total | |
| Cash | 188 | 75% | 168 | 80% | 108 | 75% |
| Conventional loan | 35 | 14% | 24 | 12% | 21 | 15% |
| Seller financing | 28 | 11% | 18 | 8% | 11 | 8 % |
| Other | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 2% |
| Total | 252 | 100% | 210 | 100% | 100% |
The commercial market is up this year, but it is still pretty weak.
For January – September 2024, there have been six commercial sales compared to three during the same time period in 2023. After a boomlet in 2022—when there were 18 closed sales— the commercial market has come down to a more typical level for Taos. The chart below shows that 6-8 commercial transactions per year are the norm in our small market.
Higher interest rates no doubt are affecting the feasibility of commercial real estate. Currently, there are 31 active commercial listings; of these, only one has a pending sale.
With the growing number of people moving to Taos (for either full-time or extended-stay living), the demand for commercial services — and therefore for commercial real estate — should increase over time. However, given higher interest rates and the possibility that there might yet be a recession looming, demand for commercial real estate will probably remain muted.
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 YTD |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 6 |